Afraid of sharks? After watching Jaws, most people are. As we’ve pointed out in previous posts, however, there are very few fatal shark attacks world-wide. You are far more likely to be killed by a dog than by a shark, but few of us run away screaming, “Look out! A dog!” when we see one.
This is less likely to kill you than a dog....
The availability heuristic [1] suggests that if you can imagine something easily, you inflate its probability. Being attacked by a shark is certainly more vivid than imagining being attacked by a dog. One of the things that increases our ability to imagine something is news coverage. Shark attacks are news, dog attacks, even fatal ones, are much less likely to be.
My students seem unaware that out of the 300,000 to 400,000 children we are told are “missing” on milk cartons and grocery bags, only about 100 per year are kidnapped by strangers in the US, according to FBI stats. The others are custody disputes and runaways, not good things for children, but much different from a stranger grabbing your child on the way to school. Unfortunately, all the coverage of those 100 kids per year leads to the idea that kidnapping really does happen to perhaps hundreds of thousands. One of my neighbors was fretting when her 12 year old son was riding a bike with a friend the one mile to our local ice cream store because he might get kidnapped. I’m not sure how parents today are making the transition from worrying about a 12 year old’s 1 mile bike ride to putting the keys to the family car in the hands of a 16 year old to sending an 18 year old off to college.
I don’t know why, but sometimes I compulsively read Dear Abby, and a few weeks ago, she published a doozy that truly illustrates the current American paranoia. Janet, from the “dangerous” town of Aurora, Illinois, has the following advice for parents with cell phones:
Parents should take advantage of these photo opportunities. Before leaving home for the day on a shopping trip or family outing, take a picture of your children in the outfits they are wearing that day. Once you are all back home, safe and sound, you can delete that picture and the next day take a new one. That way, you’ll always have a current photo of how your child looks “today,” not six months or more ago at a special event. You also won’t have to rely on your memory of exactly what your child was wearing if he or she should go missing.
You have GOT to be kidding. Janet, like many Americans, seems to think that “going missing” is a regular occurrence. Instead of worrying about the chances of our children “going missing,” we should warn them about the uncles, coaches, teachers, camp counselors, and others who are much more likely to be the pedophiles than strangers jumping out of bushes.
The world is a very unsafe place–always has been, probably always will be. But it seems to me that our fear today is misplaced and inconsistent. People wear bike helmets, but then drive drunk and have sex with people they don’t know.
1. Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1973). Availability: a heuristic for judging frequency and probability. Cognitive Psychology, 5, 207-232.
2. Tversky, A. & Kahneman, D. (1974). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Science, 185, 1124-1130.
13 Comments
bweinberger · October 19, 2009 at 7:55 pm
I really enjoyed this post. Funny how the human mind works. Some are more pessimistic than others, mix it with a little imagination, give it access to some reinforcing ideas and you can get amazing results. But hey, sharks are scary, just not as scary as dogs apparently. What’s even more amusing is how the world is mostly dangerous because of Homo sapiens, and not as much from mother nature. I grew up in a rural area and strangers coming up to you while walking at night is a strange occurance, but I really wonder how many people actually get picked up and are never heard from again. I admit this post is a conglomerate of random thought, I only wanted to say everything that had been given rise to because of this post. Thanks for taking the time to read this post. Enjoy the rest of your amazing day!
Laura Freberg · October 19, 2009 at 9:05 pm
My favorite statistic is that you’re more likely to get killed by stuff falling off an airplane than by a shark attack…..
khoffert · October 20, 2009 at 3:33 pm
I feel like there is a definite difference between a shark and a dog. We never hear about sharks unless someone has been attacked by one. Dogs, on the other hand, we have in our homes. We grew up with dogs. We brought them to the park and they love us and are loyal. It is not at all surprising that more dogs kill people than sharks, either. Think of how many sharks you have seen in your lifetime. I’d be willing to bet that the average American will run into dogs many times more often than wild sharks, and that alone skews the statistic.
Janet is ridiculous and I am very glad she is not my mother.
BreehanYohe · October 21, 2009 at 8:00 pm
I was always interested in the availability heuristic, especially in today’s world. One minute we are worrying about terrorists attacking all of our national monuments, the next and most recent fear, is that swine flu is going to harm us all. The interesting thing about swine flu is that it has killed so few people compared to the regular flu.
It seems that the novelty of swine flu, it is a brand new strain of the flu we are used to, so it worries us more even though it has not been proven to be as deadly as something like the Spanish Flu. Every time there is some new concern that combines novelty with danger such as Swine Flu and shark attacks, we tend to overestimate the danger that comes with it because it is so out the ordinary and it stands out in our mind, and perhaps in our nightmares as well…
dmorriso · October 22, 2009 at 2:04 pm
Growing up, I would constantly hear stories about what things my parents would do as kids. Their parents would let them go outside and do whatever just as long as they were back by dinner. For me, growing up, my parents seemed to be paranoid about knowing where I was and what I was doing constantly. (Thankfully they didn’t go as far as Janet. Phew!!) I do believe that all the negative news we hear daily can be important to be aware, but it causes an extra fear among people. It can be a little ridiculous.
Haha I like your statistic about the airplane vs. shark attacks.
vdowell · October 24, 2009 at 1:54 pm
It is so true that people have unreasonable fears of extremely rare things… yet can be completely care free when it come to things that are an actual risk. I know someone who refuses to have any immunizations because of the minute risks they pose yet they drink and drive a ridiculous amount. I think some of their fear needs to be redirected towards things that are a real threat in their life.
ylabiaga · October 25, 2009 at 9:38 am
I remember studying the availability heuristic in a statistics class. I think the media plays a huge role in how we think and react to certain things, like being afraid of being eaten by a shark or being attacked by a dog. Maybe people find it easier to remember traumatic things instead of constantly worrying about the little things that could go wrong in day-to-day life, such as getting into a car accident. I’ve been flying on airplanes my entire life, and while it does scare me to think about crashing, I know there is a higher risk of being hit by another car. It’s so easy to get caught up in the all fear and worry about the latest threat (like swime flu) but I just try to live my life as usual, and whatever happens happens, no matter how likely it is.
LanieAnton · October 25, 2009 at 11:58 pm
I loved this post. It shines light on some really interesting human behavior. I heard once that you are more likely to be killed by a vending machine falling on you then a shark attack. I was always taught to look both ways before crossing the street, and never talk to strangers. But that doesn’t cover it. Children need to be taught in depth on the signs of pointing out a predator, but somehow without scaring them.
I think it has to do with being able to point out the villain, and recognizing it. With sharks and dogs you know exactly what they look like, but there is no obvious appearance to a predator. It just makes them all the more dangerous.
NikkiNoroian · October 31, 2009 at 5:31 pm
At my elementary school a company come to the campus who created “child ID cards”–complete with our fingerprint, picture, height, weight, etc–for our parents to keep in case we we kidnapped. I can remember being frightened by the whole ordeal, especially when I realized why having my fingerprint might be helpful… I think that it would be really traumatic for a child to have their “mugshot” taken every day. I hope Abby was able to get Janet to snap out of it…sheesh
aterpenny · November 1, 2009 at 3:03 pm
The distorted news coverage by the media has led to many skewed statistics, frightened parents, and paranoia worldwide. Sharks are hyped up to be these deadly creatures when in fact they really aren’t all that bad. If the public really wanted to worry about “killer” animals, they should be focusing their attention on hippopotamuses and disease carrying mosquitoes.
kgerhard · November 2, 2009 at 1:17 pm
I watched an interesting documentary regarding this same issue about sharks. Because the media puts fear into people by playing up the ‘human hungry’ shark image, illegal shark hunting is a huge problem and no one is doing anything about it. Sharks are getting slaughtered by the thousands, but nobody really cares because sharks are a menace to humans (supposedly but not factually). It was a really eye opening film and really interesting to see. It is also very ironic- with so much ‘save our plant, save the animals’ mumbo jumbo, the media is actually HELPING to eliminate sharks and convince people that it doesn’t really matter. Sharks are one of the longest living animals in our oceans and have lived for thousands if not millions of years. They are truly an evolutionary wonder.
Regarding the kidnappings- a family member of mine has a similar mindset that everyone is a threat! Every time there is a rape reported in San Luis, she emails me and reminds me to lock my windows at night, not to go out by myself when its dark, etc. While I am aware of potentially dangerous situations, her words haunt me if I’m ever alone at night (say getting off work and walking to my car) because her paranoia is in the back of my mind driving me crazy! I don’t think people should live their lives fearing strangers, but should be aware of their surroundings. Teach your children not to get into cars with strangers, don’t teach them to be afraid of everyone in the world!
adugandzic · November 4, 2009 at 6:12 pm
This is a really great post. I am one of those people who tends to blow things way out of proportion when there’s absolutely no need. I remember when September 11 happened, and I was in 7th grade, for almost a year after I was always scared when I heard an airplane overhead because I thought it was going to drop a bomb on us. Of course, that was ridiculous, and I’m not like that anymore, but I sometimes find myself getting nervous over trivial things.
I’ve recently realized however that the news is mostly filled with stories of terror and bad things happening to people. It’s all of the rare stories that we hear about that make us think they happen a lot. I think it’s terrible because it causes so much fear and unnecessary stress. We need to be careful, but we don’t need to be paranoid!!
mmoeinaz · November 20, 2009 at 8:44 pm
Reading this posting had me think of so many people. One person in particular is my close friend who is a hyprochondriac. The second any news of a form of danger is mentioned, she right away thinks about the worst case scenario. In fact, her irrationality causes her immense anxiety, that she is very aware of. For example, she always worries about earthquakes occurring, even though the probability isn’t likely. She also worries about any potential sickness. When the swine flu outbreak occurred, she thought she had it anytime she would sneeze or cough, when she was reacting to her allergies. Even when it comes to school, she has irrational fears of failing out of school. I feel sad watching all of that because she actually is aware of it but the anxiety gets the best of her, and often she will have a very stressed emotional breakdown.
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